Keynote in NEEDS 2026 Conference:
Assessing the Cascading Impacts of Natural Hazards on Critical National Infrastructure (CNI)
The level of the impacts caused by climate extremes can be determined by the physical interconnections between different phenomena and how these impacts then compound across spatial and temporal scales and cascade through our built infrastructure systems and networks. Our climate is warming rapidly, meaning these interconnected and cascading events and the risks they pose are projected to increase in both severity and frequency. Current approaches to predicting, assessing and managing interconnected cascading risks typically ignore these interactions, in part or in full. As a result, the possible magnitude of their impacts and true nature of risk can be significantly underestimated. The IPCC’s latest assessment report identified these ‘complex hazards and risks’ as the largest gap in climate adaptation knowledge. This presentation will explore some of the latest approaches towards identifying, assessing and predicting interconnected compounding events and their cascading impacts. It will draw on findings from ongoing Scottish, UK and international activities and initiatives focused on these complex interconnections, and explore how systems thinking is being implemented, including in the next UK climate change risk assessment due in 2026 (CCRA4). We will then explore the cross-sectoral cascading impacts of extreme weather events on Critical National Infrastructure (CNI) as a case study to evidence the interconnected vulnerabilities across energy, water, transport and telecommunications. Using Storm Éowyn from 2025, cross-sectoral disruptions and impacts to Scotland’s CNI are explored through a co-designed workshop and survey. We will identify key dependencies on electricity and telecommunications infrastructure, providing vital evidence to inform future preparedness strategies for climate-resilient CNI. Examples of recent assessment advances, the development of new multi-hazard scenarios that consider physically-plausible worst case combinations of events to help manage complex hazards and risks, and the move towards multi-hazard early warning systems (MHEWS) that incorporate systems thining and interconnected risks.
About speaker:
Professor Chris White is Head of the Centre for Water, Environment, Sustainability and Public Health at the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow. The Centre undertakes fundamental and applied research that provides novel solutions to some of the most pressing global environmental challenges, including net zero and the circular economy, renewable energy, water resources and waste management, environmental health, and climate resilience.
He leads several projects and activities including the new ANTICIPATE European COST Action network CA24144 on extended-range multi-hazard predictions and early warnings (2025-29). He leads multi-hazard interactions and cascading impacts work package of the MEDiate (Multi-hazard and risk-informed system for enhanced local and regional disaster risk management) project (2022-25) and is a partner in the forthcoming TOGETHER (Towards enhanced coordination of disaster risk management and governance through a holistic framework for multi-level interaction and communication) project (2025-28), both funded by the Horizon Europe programme of the European Commission. He was also previously co-lead of the applications sub-project of the World Meteorological Organization’s WWRP/WCRP S2S Prediction Project application sub-group.
